"Vice", and More

I Wish I'd Written This One
An article in the English paper The Guardian titled  "Donald Trump's worst weeks of 2018--the definitive list"; with this classic English subtitle: "The administration’s base-level awfulness has made this a competitive category but some weeks stood out as truly dire". Kudos to the writer, Adam Gabbatt, who clearly had enough time to do thorough research (and add nice links).

Cliff's notes -  he has them in this order:   Feb.12-16; July 16-20; Aug. 20-24; Sept. 3-7; Dec. 10-14; Dec. 17-21. Set your WayBack machines and enjoy--repeatedly.

 I would go with the July one (Helsinki), because that one did real damage to his base. Although we always tend to remember the recent ones, it does make sense that it's back-end heavy, as the trend for him is worsening.

"Vice" -- the movie 
(contains spoilers, but you should already know the plot elements)
Rather than a historical document (though full of specific dates and factual events), this should be viewed as the creation of the director Adam McKay.  The subject is the life and career of former Vice President Dick Cheney. McKay's career started with writing comedy (SNL, Talladega Nights) but then stepped it up big-time with "The Big Short", for which he was nominated for the Oscar for Best Director and won for adapted screenplay.  This time he does not have the writing credits, but the movie clearly has his authorship.

In some respects, the film does recall "The Big Short" (the inside story of the financial cause of the Great Crater and those who got ahead of the curve investing on it). An example is that in these "nonfiction" films he allows himself a scene of total comedy invention. In Big Short, he had Margot Robbie explain mortgage-backed derivatives from inside her bathtub; in Vice, he imagines a scene of Cheney and his wife Lynne engaged in pillow talk quoting from Shakespeare.

As in Short, McKay manages to make a dry and depressing subject entertaining, actually full of action. The raw material he found in Cheney's earlier life makes it possible: Cheney's early drunkenness, with Lynne telling him off; Cheney telling off Lynne's father after her mother's suspicious death by drowning; the scene when daughter Mary comes out as lesbian to Lynne and Cheney. Eventually, we get to the meat of the matter, with Cheney taking over (usurping?) in the Situation Room on 9/11, Cheney shooting the judge with the shotgun "while hunting' (in the movie, it's from a car!), Cheney ordering Scooter Libby to link the Wilson couple--Ambassador Joseph Wilson and CIA undercover agent Valerie Plame--if that occurred according to the scene, it was a criminal act never prosecuted (Scooter, though--that's a different story).

More than entertainment, though, the movie strives for greatness with its ensemble of actors.  First I must name Amy Adams as Lynne Cheney - what is there to say, except she consistently gives great performance in a huge variety of roles?   Here, she is playing a person of note, a writer and a woman with sharp intellect who has a deep understanding of the limitations of her time for a woman, even more so for one from a humble background, but one who is still hugely ambitious. It is her relationship to Cheney that McKay keys upon in his use of the dialogue from MacBeth where she guides and goads him to take that VP role from Dubya.

Sam Rockwell as George W. Bush was the one who amazed me most, in his expert impersonation of the voice and manner  of someone we all know all too well.   Unlike Christian Bale as Cheney, he may have been unwilling to put  on an extra 20 pounds (maybe 40 for Bale?) for the role, but the intimate, friendly W. good-ol'-boy is critically important in making credible McKay's presentation of Bush's intention always to have Cheney as the running mate and Cheney's initial reluctance even to consider taking it.

Then there is Steve Carrell as Donald Rumsfeld, Cheney's first employer in Washington (Dick was Rummy's intern when Rumsfeld was a junior Representative from Illinois). McKay shows them as being Partners in Climb throughout their careers, ultimately placing Rumsfeld in the room to push for the Iraq invasion (I was surprised not to hear Carrell speak the words "target-rich environment") so that Cheney didn't have to do it.   And I must give credit to Tyler Perry, playing Colin Powell, and LisaGay Hamilton as Condi Rice.  And there are many others.

The Bottom LIne on "Vice"
This movie is propaganda, of the best sort.  It's not quite comedy, not quite satire (too real).  I have to say it puts Michael Moore in the shade, much as i like that dude and his style, too.  This is a pro hit job.  I saw a quote from McKay in which he said that he viewed Cheney as a much more serious threat to the country than Trump. (don't know where, now)  Although I think the judgment is premature, it is clear that McKay gave a great deal of study and thought to this film, and that he was deeply disturbed by what Cheney did.

At the same time, McKay was astonished by the nature of Cheney's accomplishment, assisted by his legal accomplice David Eddington, who developed the "unitary Executive" theory's VP-corollary that the job, uniquely, has no meaningful check-and-balance.    Beyond that, he is sympathetic to the challenges Cheney faced, with his health,  with being consistent in supporting his daughter Mary, as well as being a reformed alcoholic from his early adult days.

Oscar-wise, this one could get a bunch of nominations--screenplay, editing, directing, all four acting roles, and Best Picture--but I don't see it sweeping the board like that.  It is clearly not going to be popular universally, and there are many interpretations of fact that can be dissected and dissed.  Its enduring value, though, comes from the very serious charges McKay makes through the movie about  the conniving underpinning under legal cover which allowed Cheney--who was basically an unregulated missile in the Executive Mansion (and a bunch of other places, as McKay shows) --to expand his practical control of the powers of government way beyond those envisioned for the Vice-Presidency, and to set Bush up as the goat for entering the Iraq war.  Think of whether the Founders would have wanted Aaron Burr to be able to order around the military, potentially initiating conflict, while he kept Thomas Jefferson in the air and out of the way?

Quickies
HBO running through the past seasons of "Game of Thrones" is what I would call good TV programming.   Sets us up for the new one, I guess, and meanwhile fills our monthly quotas of sex and violence without having to view network schlock or football.   I missed the marathons of seasons 2-4 while on holiday, but it really doesn't matter.

Music:  It's such a fragmented scene, anything I can say would only pertain to my little shard of it..  I would mention MGMT, alt-J, Kurt Vile, Mitski, St. Vincent as younger ones for whom my appreciation appreciated notably.  Among veterans,  Jack White, Muse, Imagine Dragons.  I'm impressed by the persistence of Tom Petty encomia; there seems to be a permanent SiriusXM station for him (big deal, you say). My concert of the year was David Byrne's American Utopia tour.  I'm happy The Cure and Roxy Music will be in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame this year.  And Broken Bells is coming out with new music this year!


2018 was clearly better than 2017, which was probably the worst one since 2001.  I feel that 2019 is going to be good and 2020 even better. 
Does it go without saying?  Well, anyway, to all who read this:

Happy 2019!

Movie Guide, for the Holidays and the Oscars (2018)

I do not have a privileged viewpoint in seeing the end-of-year flood of films timed for maximum Oscar impact.  I just go to the cinema when I have the chance now, in a small town with big-city cinemas hours distant, but I still go often.  I admit to being a buff, though I limit myself to a couple of thunderous action movies, a couple of sequels,  and a couple of animated features a year.  I am mostly interested in comedy, drama, and the occasional musically-themed film. +  I am not a TV guy (nor do I write a TV Guide).

My main factual resource for this piece is the recently-announced set of Golden Globes movie nominations. The Globes  (GG, below) are a good, independently-drawn small-sample (without replacement),  providing a sense of future Oscar voters' likely views.  It's a good estimate, though early in the award season--later-released films will rise for Oscar consideration.

The Golden Globes have the weird feature of having two sets of awards for movies (for best picture and lead actor and actress), one for Drama and one for Comedy or Musical, and they have a very weird approach to assigning films to the categories. Still, if one puts together the nominees for best picture for the two categories, the result is 10 names, which is how many the Oscars are now possibly including in its nominations.

The (Preliminary) Nominees
Here they are, with the GG category, release date, and a note for each, intended primarily for those who have not heard of these names.
A Star is Born (D) (already--Oct. 5 ) - I would've put this under comedy/musical.  I have to admit I haven't seen it, though.  It could yet be one of my two sequels, but I'd have to hurry.  More likely to see it on HBO or something, later.  I do respect the effort, though; I was not at all surprised to read that Lady Gaga gave a great performance.  She was born to act...and play music.   (#redo category)

Black Panther (D) (Feb. 16)  I think all superhero movies should be under comedy/musical--it's not really ever serious. (#redo) That being said, very well made, a blockbuster that will also get award respect. it could still win for something like screenplay or effects, though the awards don't often go to movies released this early in the year.

BlackKKKlansman (D) (Aug. 10)  I'd say the best Spike Lee joint since the '90's.  A fantastic concocted story that's true, of a black who was admitted as a KKK member (with a white colleague for the face-to-mask meetings).  Casting Adam Driver was extremely smart.

Bohemian Rhapsody (D, but totally should be in musical #redo ) - (Nov. 2 ).  The story of Freddy Mercury, lead singer of Queen, and his meteoric life and death.  A story very well told.  Lead role is Rami Halek (Mr. Robot on TV) as Mercury, an award-worthy performance. The musical recapitulations are fantastic;  I don't know but I think they must have been lip-synched. 

If Beale Street Could Talk (D) --  (Dec. 25-limited release) -  Harlem story, there better be some good music. I want to say a dark-horse candidate for top awards, but I don't want that to be viewed as a disingenuous slur.  What I mean is, the pedigree (director from Moonlight, story from James Baldwin, top stars) is impeccable, but the box office and critical appeal are unproven at this point.*
  
Crazy Rich Asians (C or M) (Aug. 15) - My wife wouldn't let me take her to see it.  We used to live in Singapore, so we know the milieu.  I presume it was light, entertaining, good box office (especially abroad--this one's GG nomination could be a case of sample bias vs. the AMPAS) .

The Favourite (C or M) (Nov. 23) --the classification of this one seems totally absurd at first glance.  You would think: Costume drama-- Queen Anne of England, I think, with Emma Wood and Rachel Weisz; good on the eyes.  Actually, it's probably something completely different--satire, with esoteric comedy appeal, if any, by the writer/director Y.  Lanthimos (The Lobster).  If you saw that, you know what I mean. 

Green Book (C or M- #redo,  though there's great music)  (Nov. 16).  Driving Miss Daisy with a twist--the chauffeur is white, the passenger black.  Based on the true story of jazz pianist Don Shirley's visit to the segregated South in the '60's, and the 'goombah' bouncer who was his driver. Both Viggo Mortensen (lead actor, for the GG) and Mahershala Ali (supporting, as Shirley) will get serious consideration for awards.  Loved the American Italian dialogue, Ali's keyboard-acting artistry.  

Mary Poppins Returns (C or M) - (Dec. 25 )- Emily Blunt, Lin-Manuel Miranda, and others.  Modern depression, and its cure.  A true musical.

Vice  (C or M) ( Dec. 15 ) - #redo.   This is the one with the best buzz, as lead actors Christian Bale and Amy Adams re-create the magic from American Hustle, with Dick Cheney's career being the current subject.

(the listing is alphabetical, by GG category) 

Not Nominated by the Hollywood Foreign Press

(For Whatever Reason)

(with theoretical release dates--have you seen them? I have not nor seen that they are out)
Boy Erased (Nov. 8)  - Nicole Kidman and Lucas Hedges ('Young Actor of the Year') - Gay Conversion drama; 
At Eternity's Gate (Nov 15 -*)  Willem Dafeoe is Vincent Van Gogh.  artistic appeal, for sure;
Roma (Nov. 21*)  - The one I am most eager to see, the Amarcord of Alejandro Cuaron.   Cuaron's right at the top now; I prefer him slightly over his buddy Inarritu;
Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Nov. 9*) - the Coen Brothers' (latest) Western, in six parts.  If you can, translate O Brother, Where Art Thou to the Old West.   Works for me.

Finally, Vox Lux (Dec. 7) -Natalia Portman plays a Gaga-like performer.  Lady Gaga will be at the Oscars ceremony, will Portman?

Early Oscar Talk
 (skip if it annoys you):  
You might think that "Vice" will win Best Picture, but I think it will be 'Mary Poppins Returns'.  If it clicks, it will still be showing next summer.  'Roma' will be relegated to foreign language film. 
Best Actor would seem between two guys who put on weight for their roles--Mortensen (a/k/a Aragorn) and Bale. If Rami gets nominated, that would be something to note. 
Actress will be very interesting and telling.  I think Gaga will be nominated but not win, but it is a possibility.  Emily Blunt will be in there.  And there's others:  I just love Amy Adams.  Is this the year?  Rosamund Pike for "A Private War" (the story of Marie Colvin) has a shot. 
Director is always interesting.  I think Bradley Cooper will snag a nom. Spike Lee might.  Cuaron.  Probably no women. 


*I hate this release strategy (the Ol' Harvey Weinstein), though it is frequently chosen for critical faves with uncertain prospects. 

+The history of movie soundtracks is a favorite subject. 
#redo - the category shown is what GG did; I would disagree.  
(Did I forget to mention sex?  Another publick goode.) /s

Conjecture

(Much of this is true.)

Our President's bad mood last weekend was easy to read.  As they said in the old gangster movies, The Jig Is Up.  No more cake for you, Donald!

Though Paul Manafort had backed off his earlier plea deal by lying to Mueller and sharing information about the investigation with the White House (good!), Michael Cohen sprang a bigger leak in the Drumpfseeflotte by pleading guilty to lying to Congress about ongoing talks with Russia into 2016.  Very bad.

Trump had a dream--it was to be his crowning achievement.  He wanted to make it happen in Moscow, the biggest hotel of all time.  Running for President (not winning) was a strategy to build his brand up towards that. And, while he was running, he could raise holy Hell in the meantime with the media and those who had failed to respect him.

In 2015 and early 2016 the dealings with the Russians were proceeding, but Trump kept it at arms-length while his campaign was still a going concern.  The Republican candidates ended up falling like bowling pins, though. Worse, people liked what he had to say on these national issues, simple expression of his uninformed instincts,  by which his gut had always guided him.  It then became apparent that the nomination was his (though winning the general election was, and would always remain, unlikely).

No problem.  The deal was put on hold until after the election.  The day chosen was the same day Russia entered the campaign more aggressively on Trump's behalf through their agents Assange (and Snowden?).  Though the Trumps wanted the leaks, the timing was strange:  It could have been a trick from either side;  perhaps it was the subject of their private meeting in Helsinki, when Trump explained the necessity while not retracting his offer of the future penthouse.

Once again, though, fate intervened, and through a combination of errors and accidents, he won a smashing victory in the Electoral College despite never catching his opponent in popular opinion.  WTF?

Now things started to get very complicated quickly.  First Mike Flynn overstepped and had to be sacrificed....and so on.  Now Donald realizes that dream is never going to happen--this Presidency thing has gotten in the way, permanently.

Negotiated Withdrawal 
Donald Trump  claims to be the expert negotiator.  I think it's time to put this to the real test. The idea is very simple, though it will take some time to work out important details--so it's critical to begin soon.

Trump doesn't run in 2020, agreeing to be a one-term President No more indictments (from the date of the agreement) of White House personnel until after the completion of his term.

No tricks. Trump would agree not to seek or allow the nomination for President of the Republican party nor encourage nor allow his candidacy by any other entity.   He, his children, and certain named White House staff would remain immune from any criminal indictments through US courts until Jan., 2021. This agreement would preclude indictment (Federal or state courts), but would not  prejudice investigation, or even prosecution, subsequent to his administration for acts either before Election Day, 2016 or in his continuing role as a private citizen.  Congressional leaders would forswear impeachment for a set of past subjects

The benefits of such an agreement to all concerned can be described.  Trump leaves office with his head high, and his family intact.  (Whether they stick around afterwards to face the music or run for it, I don't know.)  The election can proceed normally; Congress can avoid having to put everybody through the pain of impeachment and even some of the endless subpoenas and fights over executive privilege..  The Presidency can avoid the contamination and condemnation that the Ford pardon of Nixon caused.  The voting public can focus on what comes next after this aberrant episode. The Special Prosecutor would continue its work, developing cases, but on a reduced budget, until the end of the term; that would reduce lasting damage to the Department of Justice, the FBI, etc.

The terms of the proposed agreement would  take some time to arrange, during which Mueller's investigation and prosecutions will continue, delivering hammer blows until Trump finally faces reality and accepts the need to talk (I would imagine he would turn the idea down flat the first couple times it would be suggested.) 

There are key details that must be worked out:   the specifics of the immunity for family members and Donald  (until January, 2021); and disposition of the money Trump has already raised for his 2020 campaign. (Reported to be $100 milion; as far as I'm concerned, he can keep it.)  There are a number of parties that need to agree on this, besides Trump, and he would need to make a Shermanesque statement of disavowing a run for 2020.   That would be the hardest part; he will need to be persuaded it's his best option.

Maybe then he could build his hotel in Moscow.