tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10594493.post9046075789166774970..comments2024-03-14T11:27:52.369-06:00Comments on Stoner: Political Drama Act II, Scene 2Chin Shih Tanghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00852129729584273400noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10594493.post-83353110216929169792016-03-19T10:35:52.770-06:002016-03-19T10:35:52.770-06:00I was wrong about Hillary and Citizens United--it ...I was wrong about Hillary and Citizens United--it was a group that wanted to do ads attacking her. So, as she sometimes points out, she was against them from the beginning. Still, she should do something more tangible to show her intention to end the campaign finance regime under which we suffer now. <br /><br />She has made progress on making clear why she's running. I think she has decided not to bring up the damn emails anymore, and take her chances (which are good) that it will not end in any indictments. <br />Chin Shih Tanghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00852129729584273400noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10594493.post-10055711655329001592016-02-01T08:47:40.649-07:002016-02-01T08:47:40.649-07:00Feb. 1--Finally some real voter behavior tonight: ...Feb. 1--Finally some real voter behavior tonight: the pre-game warmups are over and the competition begins. <br />I am struck by the lack of movement of those markets I highlighted 26 days ago--they haven't really been so dynamic. What has been moving has been steady growth in the bettors' support for Trump and for Sanders (and away from Rubio, Cruz, and Clinton). My positions have suffered a bit for that, except in Iowa, where I have stuck with my cheap shares on Trump winning, Cruz second (though I also have Rubio and Trump shares for second), and on Clinton winning in Iowa. That last is my chief vulnerability tonight; if Clinton takes Iowa, even narrowly, I should make money on that market and a lot of other ones. Chin Shih Tanghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00852129729584273400noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10594493.post-53691322399157906322016-01-14T09:14:04.541-07:002016-01-14T09:14:04.541-07:00I should say that the one scenario in which Bernie...I should say that the one scenario in which Bernie might be preferred over a (relatively undamaged) Hillary is if Trump wins the nomination. Then, his appeal to the disaffected, his renunciation of big money contributions, and the fact that Trump's nomination would clarify that this is a freakish change election, would tend to argue for him. The problem is that, though the Democratic convention is later than the Republicans', both of these things are going to be decided in the same time range: March-April. Still, if Trump sweeps the early 4 primaries, that might be a signal that the unthinkable must be thought. Chin Shih Tanghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00852129729584273400noreply@blogger.com