tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10594493.post8688335678386876489..comments2024-03-14T11:27:52.369-06:00Comments on Stoner: Electoral Strategy for 2018Chin Shih Tanghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00852129729584273400noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10594493.post-85930297596883366922018-12-05T00:53:19.993-07:002018-12-05T00:53:19.993-07:00I have to say I didn't follow my advice on pol...I have to say I didn't follow my advice on political contributions--I gave dozens to many different candidates. Usually $20.18, but if they specifically said less, that's what I gave them. I'll do a column on contributions soon. <br /><br />My predictions were a little conservative--my opinion (and my predictit money) moved more favorably toward the Democrats in the House later. But pretty good, really--the only thing I really got wrong here was the Democratic nominee for governor in Florida (Andrew Gillum surprised me.) <br /><br />In spite of which, I made only a little on Election Night and thereafter. I was too timid--didn't hold out, for example, with my bets on Democrats in California, and sold some of them at a loss when they ended up being winners. An election night shift toward higher Republican Senate numbers ended up being a mistake. The 235 House seats that actually happened was in my wheelhouse, but just barely. Chin Shih Tanghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00852129729584273400noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10594493.post-5799829928318630272018-05-26T09:06:38.036-06:002018-05-26T09:06:38.036-06:00I should have had the NJ seat of Bob Menendez on t...I should have had the NJ seat of Bob Menendez on the list (currently 16% odds of his losing); I further would say that he is the most likely upset loser (thus, not including those tossups or worse); there is still a cloud over him, though the threat of criminal prosecution has evaporated, which could cause Democrats to spurn him if the opposition is relatively strong (even though NJ goes mostly Democratic). Apart from the balance of power issue, I wouldn't even mind his losing much; he is pretty lame. Chin Shih Tanghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00852129729584273400noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10594493.post-11138245615245725252018-05-17T15:59:05.764-06:002018-05-17T15:59:05.764-06:00One more comment, coming clean on my betting: My...One more comment, coming clean on my betting: My estimate is Democrats are about 50-50 to regain the House, and about 30-70 the Senate. The center of distribution on my Predictit bets on the Senate (Republican seats) is 52/53, with current bets I'd be winning anywhere from 51-55. I'm taking a chance betting against 50-50, while I'm playing 49 or less (Dem control) according to whether I think the current sentiment is overly favorable or the opposite--lately there has been a correction toward the 30-70 as reality sets in for Demo hopeful bettors. <br /> far as the House, they have some weird ranges for Republican seats; I am holding positive on 218-225 (with smaller amounts on 226-230 and 231-235)--I like that broad range! <br />The four-way bet they introduced now (the four combinations of control by party for the two Houses) holds the promise for some active movement and I will be following it. <br />Chin Shih Tanghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00852129729584273400noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10594493.post-18700104888717729022018-05-17T15:44:18.913-06:002018-05-17T15:44:18.913-06:00The answer to the question, how many races for sea...The answer to the question, how many races for seats in the House feature an incumbent running for re-election? is 374; 176 Dem and 198 Republican (as opposed to the 193-234 margin, with 8 vacancies, 2 of which Dem, currently in place after immediate departures, special elections, etc.) Repubs are defending 42 without incumbents, Dems 19. This is one good reason for optimism. <br /> <br /> So out of the remaining 61, Dems would need to take over two-thirds (a different 42) of those seats to have a net gain of 22. Apart from the upsets, that would be a starting point for estimation. Chin Shih Tanghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00852129729584273400noreply@blogger.com